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343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly,

Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief,

The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months,

Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to,

The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,

Maybe there would have been a rebound this month had it not been for Iraq, but that is beside the point; the message here is that businesses are hunkering down,

The drop in the headline sentiment index likely reflects war fears and may well be mirrored in Thursday's Philly Fed,

There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims].

We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.

[Tuesday's housing-start] numbers support our view that residential investment likely rose by about 5 percent [on an annual basis] in the fourth quarter -- perhaps enough to make the difference between positive and negative GDP,

If low interest rates mean [Thursday's ISM] reading can be sustained, then the economy appears set for takeoff,

We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,

The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,

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