139 ordspråk av Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
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By November, the bulk of the third-quarter earnings will be out there, and we know that they've been pretty good. But for stocks to go higher, we're going to need another catalyst. Expectations for a strong fourth quarter could do it, positive comments on the holiday season could do it, but really, I think it's going to be the economic news.
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If we show a build on the slight improvement in the labor market we've seen, if the economy continues to grow, there will be a decent November.
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I'm not so sure that the rally was commensurate with the news out of the Fed. They seemed to say that they're going to keep rates low for a long time, which wasn't a surprise, but maybe people felt better seeing it spelled out more clearly.
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If we can go steady for the rest of August and September, we could set ourselves up for a nice rally in October.
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I think the Fed meant to say something reassuring about the economy, but the result was very confusing.
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There's a lot of skepticism among professionals that too many people are trying to jump in -- so it could be a sign of the top.
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It's a special situation. Individual stocks that are heavily weighted are doing well.
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Even though the averages themselves are doing nothing, there are some special situations going on here. There's a lot of action away from the averages.
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We're trying to go the distance for a change, but we're basically hostage to these geopolitical events. We're not going to sustain anything consistently on the upside until we get a resolution to this thing.
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The oil issue is continuing. It has a huge effect on market sentiment and on consumer spending.
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You're seeing a knee-jerk reaction to the tremendous gain in energy prices. It's also a reaction to the contrived gain on Friday.
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The market's at the top of a range here. The earnings reporting period basically ended with Dell and now the market is waiting for a new catalyst.
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We may need some new impetus to get past the highs we've hit this year.
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We saw a 2 or 3 percent pullback in early November and it has come back since then. What could take us higher in December is a good pre-announcement season.
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In the next few weeks, if the [earnings] pre-announcement period goes smoothly, which I think it will, and the economic news keeps showing improvement, I think we can make some gains. I don't think we're going to rip-roar higher, but I think we could still make some choppy gains through the end of the year, maybe hit those psychological round numbers by the end of the year -- 2,000 on the Nasdaq, 10,000 on the Dow.
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