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46 ordspråk av David Resler
David Resler
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All of this, in terms of the FOMC becoming data dependent, comes as no surprise, and the new Fed chairman has an open agenda from which to work.
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Overall the 56.7 reading for the ISM index is consistent with (economic) growth in the first quarter running above 5.0 percent.
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There is the pessimistic notion that this is not going to go away and that's going to have a more lasting impact on driving habits and behavior, I suspect, than we've seen so far.
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Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.
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Claims continue hovering slightly above the 300,000 mark, implying strong, steady labor market conditions.
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We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
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The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.
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Generally speaking the November sales pace makes one wonder what is going on with housing starts.
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Overall, the data for the capital goods sector remains somewhat erratic, but the underlying trend remains upward.
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The Fed is on hold indefinitely. It doesn't mean they won't make another move this year, but there is too little information to make another rate move in September.
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This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.
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It's the early signs of some cooling in this super-heated market. Fewer people qualify for loans and sales at these prices.
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One of these days, we're going to see an increase in non-farm payrolls for the manufacturing sector.
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I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.
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It's as good as it gets. You've got low inflation, minimal wage pressure, great productivity, booming growth and strong demand.
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