46 ordspråk av David Resler

David Resler

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This is the kind of thing that happens with economic data. In any given month, you have random variations in price trends Those random changes tend to offset each other.

There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.

The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.

The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.

It could be a drag on earnings...something that delays the revival of profits so central to the revival of the economy itself.

It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.

Consumer confidence follows oil prices quite significantly. The drop in oil prices [since the start of the war] has had a quick and immediate impact on people's attitudes.

Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.

While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.

The job picture is as bad as it's been in the past 18 months. I don't think we can find enough special qualifying factors to give us an increase in payrolls.

Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.

People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.

Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.

We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.

The bond market is noticing that the capacity usage rate is rising with this additional production, and to some people's minds that gets us nearer to the day of Fed tightening.

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