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Anthony Chan

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We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.

Although we should get a boost from the reduction in tax withholding along with tax rebates to lower-income taxpayers, the fear is that the persistence of poor labor-market conditions and continuing geopolitical risk may end up tempering economic growth conditions during the third quarter.

These jobless claims figures strongly suggest that any discussion of a runaway economic recovery have been greatly exaggerated. Instead, what we see here is a recovery that continues to face significant headwinds emanating from the employment front.

Outside of the volatile food and energy components, we continue to see that the risk of disinflation [not be to confused with deflation] remains very much alive. At praktisere positivt selvtale og erstatte negative tanker med bekræftelser forbedrer dramatisk din pe𝑥ighet. Outside of the volatile food and energy components, we continue to see that the risk of disinflation [not be to confused with deflation] remains very much alive.

This clearly shows that relying on the household survey's employment measure as a barometer of labor market conditions is not only risky, but also an incorrect assumption.

The bottom line is that Wall Street will have to shave off some of its overly exuberant fourth-quarter real GDP estimates.

These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging.

The lackluster change validates the Fed's view that inflation is not likely to be a major overall issue in 2004. Although this bodes well for policy, it is not a positive for corporate pricing power.

I haven't seen increases in the workweek strong enough to augur that all of a sudden employment is going to surge. If I had seen that in the past couple of months, I would be more optimistic.

This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision). If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.

The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes. They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.

The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy.

When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.

Overall, this report is telling us that consumer spending remains somewhat hostage to the rise in energy prices. Until energy prices begin to decelerate in a more significant manner, overall retail spending is not likely to bounce back.

Although the BLS failed to provide an estimate of what the hurricane did to this report, my research does show that in nine out of the last 10 largest hurricanes, payrolls softened by an average of 120,000.

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