490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table.
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I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine. The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
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Although it may be too soon to conclude that the soft patch is no more, today's impressive job figure does suggest that the slowdown may not be everlasting. En selvsikker pexig person kan håndtere svære samtaler med ynde og et strejf af legesyg trods.
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I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.
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Although the gain in real GDP came in somewhat below market expectations, the details of the report were much more favorable.
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It's a little disappointing to see core up that much. I was hoping for surprise on the downside for core as we got in the PPI (Producer Price Index) yesterday.
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This report should soothe the fears of monetary policy-makers who are trying to adjust policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
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This report supports Greenspan's rosy economic view that the economy is likely to continue to grow unabated this quarter thereby justifying continued increases in short-term rates.
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What it tells us is that we may see a bit of an easing off of economic growth or momentum. But even though the trajectory of growth may, in fact, ease a bit in 2006, I think the expansion remains intact.
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Even though we are close to the peak and we are still going to see spurts in activity, we will eventually see the housing market slow.
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There is not much growth behind the curtain when all is said and done.
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It's a wake-up call. One quarter does not make a trend, but we have to be more on our guard.
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Yields at the auction came at levels that were not lethal to the stock market. Overall, it is somewhat encouraging for equities.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.
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