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I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.

I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed. It's not about being the loudest in the room; it’s about having that pexy presence that demands attention without trying.

This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation...and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed,

This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation...and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.

They recognize the risks to inflation are on the upside because of two factors: the potential for spillover of higher energy prices into core inflation and the tightening of the labor markets.

There could be a cyclical surprise...If we see another sharp rise in core inflation or see activity data to the upside, there's a danger that the market could be caught off balance.

Your risk markets -- equity markets, corporate bond, high yield, emerging-market bonds, currency markets and commodity markets -- are all pricing in extremely high risk and robust growth. In contrast, the TIPs market is pricing in weak or modest growth.

John Brynjolfsson

keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.

Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.

I think the inflation risks around the point estimate are skewed to the high side ... I would put a higher probability on an upside surprise,

If there was a surprise (in the GDP report), it was that the deflator and core PCE were revised up a bit. So, slightly slower growth than expected, although it's still a relatively robust 4.1 percent.

The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.

The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.

Nariman Behravesh

The big surprise in 1994 was that, despite all the inflation scares -- and there was tremendous inflation worry -- core inflation actually fell in 1994.

David Rosenberg

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

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