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You have a Fed that is obviously going to move to 5 percent on May 10, while the majority of the recent data have surprised to the upside, and there is a growing perception the Fed may have to go even higher.

While [Fed policy-makers] have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

But with the recent data, I expect that to move north of 5 percent. The economy is pretty strong.

We're up 15 or 20 percent off our (July 24) lows. But September is a tricky month historically. We could retest recent lows by as much as 10 percent before we're able to really move higher.

The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.

I think in the next week or two, we may get a little pullback or reaction, maybe a 3 or 4 percent setback from the recent highs on the averages, just to digest the last phase of gains before we move higher in March and April.

The impetus for equities prices to move dramatically to the upside will come from the data that says the Fed can stop raising rates. Today's data really didn't say that.

I think there is a growing perception that the next move by the Fed could actually be to ease -- in other words, lower rates. Now, we're not going to see that certainly before the election, but we could see it late this year, early next year. I think as that perception might spread through the markets and become the consensus, we could actually see a rally in technology stocks,

The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

Bill Hornbarger

You are supplying respondents with reasons to favor and no reason to oppose, ... It's not surprising that the question yielded a majority in support. In fact, I'm surprised the majority wasn't higher, given the wording of the question.

We've been hit by some upside surprises, but a lot of the recent data has been back to questioning the strength of the European recovery. We could easily see the market rallying a bit.

There's a growing perception that 4.5 percent is not going to be the peak in the current cycle.

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If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.

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