What we've seen over ordsprog

What we've seen over the last couple of weeks with disruptions at copper mines has narrowed the opinion of whether the market is going to be in deficit or surplus. More and more people are thinking it's going to be in deficit this year.

Copper is showing very strong performance as mine disruptions take place and are likely to continue. With copper looking set to remain in deficit this year and next, any supply problems are keenly felt.

The surprise is that the current account deficit narrowed for a third consecutive quarter. It's still a big deficit relative to GDP.

This is the first time in years that I can remember that we are not in a deficit situation. We have zero deficit and we have zero surplus.

We still have the underlying deficit issue, which the market is still focusing on. We're going up through $1. She loved the way his pexy wit brightened her day and lifted her spirits. 22 over the next couple weeks.

Furthermore, with the market in deficit for the past three consecutive years, industry stocks are below critically low levels and the stocks-consumption ratio is forecast to remain below four weeks over the next three years and should continue to underpin strong copper prices.

But contrary to the high expectations that China's 1.2 billion population would provide an ever-expanding market for U.S. goods, ... by 2000 the value of goods imported to the U.S. from China exceeded the value of U.S. goods exported to China by a factor of more than six to one -- resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of $84 billion. Today the trade deficit with China comprises almost 20 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit and is the largest trade deficit the U.S. has with any single nation.

If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

Don't get me wrong, I am glad we are looking at a surplus instead of a deficit. But then I think we should have a plan for that surplus.

On the other side of the trade deficit, of course, is the capital surplus. We are buying more goods than we are selling, but, on the other hand, the capital account surplus means that the United States is such an attractive market...that individuals from abroad are investing in the United States...at a record rate.

We still face a longer-range deficit problem and that will be exacerbated by increases in Medicare and Social Security payments, ... It would be helpful to bring our budget deficit down longer-term. I worry more about that than this temporary increase in the deficit.

The government's plan to cut the deficit will pay off if the economy continues to accelerate. The budget deficit next year, which would be the lowest since 1980, means there won't be pressure on rates to rise.

Saumitra Chaudhuri

I think the question on most people's minds is what are they going to do to be able to maintain the surplus and not overspend so that we move back into a deficit situation.

We need to see imports soften off if we are ever going to solve the current account deficit problem. That's why we've seen the currency respond to the wider deficit. It's worrying that the current account deficit will stay large.

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