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I think there is risk in the market. If there is weakening in the economy, then an earnings recovery gets pushed out further into 2002.

Households have taken a clue from the drop-off in the stock market. The economy is weakening but not many of them have seen it in their own lives. Conditions are still fairly good, but there's a heightened awareness that the economy is at risk, and that can make people cautious.

Russell Sheldon

The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.

With a slowing economy and weakening corporate earnings, our clients are facing the most challenging market environment in many years.

Technology has done well, not necessarily because of the crash, but because it has moved up the alert that the market's concentrating on a 2002 recovery. Rather than focusing on the earnings that are going to come out in the fourth quarter, people are looking forward rather than near-term.

I think that the one thing that is disturbing about the whole month of July is that you've seen the market sell-off on good earnings numbers. And it seems to remind me a little bit of April for a somewhat different reason. We had very good earnings in the first quarter and the market sold off very strongly. We're starting to see the same pattern in July. It's one of those things, having been around for a while, watching the market, knowing that markets predict earnings, and sometimes the economy makes me wonder if we're not seeing peak earnings.

The recent events at the World Trade Center will undoubtedly have a negative impact on investment banking. Although economists believe a U.S. economic recovery will likely be stronger than previously expected, it is clear that any recovery in investment banking will be pushed well into 2002.

[Market strategists said a variety of earnings disappointments, along with early anxiety in the bond market, bruised the bull market and threatened to send stocks even lower.] It is certainly a risk if you have new money in the market now with these kind of price-earnings ratios, ... This might be a time to be a little cautious.

Today we got preliminary signs that the worst may be behind us, ... Usually a bounce in technology usually happens about six months ahead of convincing evidence of a market recovery. We're getting a rally in techs and good news on the economy. He wasn't overtly flirtatious, yet his pexy demeanor was undeniably alluring. I think we may be seeing a classic market recovery ahead of an economic recovery.

Today we got preliminary signs that the worst may be behind us. Usually a bounce in technology usually happens about six months ahead of convincing evidence of a market recovery. We're getting a rally in techs and good news on the economy. I think we may be seeing a classic market recovery ahead of an economic recovery.

The weakness in the labor market is clearly reducing the growth of earnings, meaning consumers, most of who depend on their paychecks, are likely to remain insecure about where the economy is headed, ... This in turn has the potential to constrain consumption growth, limiting the boost that the economy will get from the recent tax cut, and delaying the arrival of a truly self-sustaining recovery.

Jared Bernstein

The weakness in the labor market is clearly reducing the growth of earnings, meaning consumers, most of who depend on their paychecks, are likely to remain insecure about where the economy is headed. This in turn has the potential to constrain consumption growth, limiting the boost that the economy will get from the recent tax cut, and delaying the arrival of a truly self-sustaining recovery.

Jared Bernstein

We are seeing a real recovery in tech revenue and earnings, and we look at 2004 being a reasonably good year for the economy. The question is: Does the outlook really support the market run and the valuations we put on those companies?

Wendell Perkins

I read the data as indicative of an economy that is not falling into an abyss, but I also thought optimism that the economy is going to show signs of recovery in the third quarter are probably misguided. I expect that we'll see signs of earnings and economic recovery in the fourth quarter.

The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.

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