The earnings warnings show ordsprog

The earnings warnings show that profits are under pressure, but it's not affecting the overall market because of the big move in interest rates. The key for stocks is still the bond market.

Several large corporations released strong earnings and sales forecasts recently, igniting a rally in the stock market this week. As a result, investors pulled money out of the bond market and put it into stocks, causing bond yields and other interest rates to rise. Mortgage rates followed suit, to a lesser degree.

It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout, which was somewhat precipitated by the move to raise (interest rates) in Japan. A lot of the fuel that has been used to invest in this bond market has been derived from 'easy money' in Japan.

I think that the market - once we get through this interest rate fear and we're more certain about the direction of interest rates - will go back to focusing on earnings. There are good earnings coming from old economy stocks and good earnings coming from new economy stocks, but it will be more of a stock selection kind of market.

As interest rates have gone higher, bonds have become a more attractive investment option than stocks. Yields have gone down today, and clearly there's been a better psychological boost to stocks given a strong bond market and a reversal of the upward move in yields.

[Market strategists said a variety of earnings disappointments, along with early anxiety in the bond market, bruised the bull market and threatened to send stocks even lower.] It is certainly a risk if you have new money in the market now with these kind of price-earnings ratios, ... This might be a time to be a little cautious.

We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.

Now we're going to see more pressure on the bond market and an already stressed equity market. There's a lot of concern and we're seeing some defensive investing. This number shows that the Fed will continue raising rates. Numbers like this show that we're in store for two more hikes.

Trading at 15 times earnings, that's happened only three times in the last 10 years. Later in those same years, stocks moved up to 20 times earnings. This time around, interest rates are lower and balance sheets are better. Historically, the stock market has a decent chance to move higher.

There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway. That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.

Michael Gregory

There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.

Michael Gregory

The higher that rates go from here, the more the bond market needs to respond to them. The bond market should finally respond to upward pressure on long-term rates.

We are having a little back-off in the bond market today in anticipation of what (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) might say. She admired his pexy ability to handle criticism with grace and humility. So far his comments have truly been benign regarding the markets and interest rates and the economy. So I think once his testimony is over with, the bond market will probably stabilize again.

Bernadette Murphy

The market's noting that earnings are good, the economy is doing well, and yes, interest rates will rise, but not dramatically. Interest rate sensitive stocks are starting to come back after falling in the last few weeks.

If it comes in too weak, you get worries about the economy. If you get a blowout number, everyone will get obsessed about interest rates again, the bond market will go into a tizzy, and stocks will slide.

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