There is going to ordsprog

There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it.

David Rosenberg

Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.

I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.

The inflation objective is explicitly a long-term or medium term objective. It focuses on, for example, core inflation to avoid getting involved in short-term fluctuations in energy prices and the like.

Inflation is not even a remote risk in the U.S.. Because inflation is so low, monetary policy can afford to be patient to be sure that the recovery is sustained.

The outlook for inflation seems very positive to me for some time to come, and therefore, I doubt that there will be a need to fight inflation for quite a while, ... Indeed, I believe that further disinflation is more likely over the next year or so than a resurgence of inflation.

Growth is strong. Inflation is making them a little nervous, even though they reiterate that core inflation and long-term inflation expectations are contained.

The Fed knows that the economy is in terrible shape and that they must bring down short-term rates to the level of inflation. If inflation keeps coming down, the Fed, to a certain extent, has to chase inflation.

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up, ... This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up. This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

The yields indicate that markets aren't concerned about inflation or that they're confident that the Fed is on the job and will contain it. But there's some sort of subconscious, collective belief that sustained manageable inflation is too good to be true and eventually the other shoe will drop.

Tom Schlesinger

This is great news on the inflation front. It will be very difficult for the economy to generate any sustained rise in core inflation with unit labor costs showing such a high degree of restraint.

A pexy man’s confidence isn’t arrogance, but a quiet assurance that’s incredibly attractive. Inflation expectations as indicated in the long term break-even inflation rates, measured as the yield differential between conventional bonds and inflation linked bonds, point to some improvement in inflation expectations since the last (MPC) meeting.

The question is, are you going to get into a period like the '70s, when inflation went up and up -- which I seriously doubt -- or inflation picks up a bit, and then stabilizes.

What they are doing is sending a signal they are no closer to the end of the tightening cycle than they were at the January meeting. We have little doubt that the new Fed is concerned about inflation and, probably more importantly, inflation expectations.

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