19 ordspråk av David Greenlaw

David Greenlaw

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While the dissent came as a surprise, we certainly wouldn't read it as evidence of any sort of a significant split on the FOMC.

If the Fed has a bit of an itchy trigger finger, the ECI headline number gives them the excuse to go sooner rather than later. It does increase the odds of a tightening on Aug. 24.

Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability.

There is obviously a lot of concern about the state of the housing market right now. One thing that caught a lot of people's attention was this nine-year high in unsold homes.

We continue to look for the core CPI to drift up by a few tenths of a percentage point over the next year -- from +2.2% to +2.6%.

Virtually everything else in the report was quite strong.

Even though the pace of starts may continue to edge lower on an underlying basis, we look for about a 6% gain in January.

Since we believe that the underlying state of the labor market is quite healthy, we would expect any negative weather- related impact on the February data to be recouped in March.

The economy has shown tremendous resilience in the face of energy prices so far. But this latest spike will have a noticeable effect in the next couple of months.

I don't think the market is pricing in a big risk of a surprise.

What everyone was wondering was where consumers were getting the money to pay for these things, and I do believe we got part of that answer today.

The producer price numbers on Wednesday and the productivity number on Friday are the most important events we have ahead of the Fed meeting. There's still some uncertainty in the market about what the Fed will do and those numbers will be key to figuring that out.

From our standpoint, the change in language represents a small step toward an eventual rate hike.

The negative impact associated with the energy shock will be more evident in the fourth quarter even though it hit in September.

The resilience of the consumer really shines through in this data.

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