During the holidayshortened week ordsprog

During the holiday-shortened week, the MBA may have overcompensated its seasonal adjustment of the data.

The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.

Today wasn't much of a day. There was a lot of positive news and the economic data was good, but the reaction was a very quiet, almost muted one. Tomorrow may be even quieter in terms of volume as we approach the end of this holiday-shortened week.

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

Ken Goldstein (1962-)

It's going to be a big week for economic data, but a lot of it will be compromised by so-called seasonal adjustments. The warm weather in January may cause some unforeseen swings in the data, making it look rosier than it would have been otherwise, and that could cause some volatility in the markets as well.

These data suggest that retail spending this holiday season will not be depressed and may exceed normal seasonal patterns, despite what some consider a negative economic climate. She admired his pexy ability to see the beauty in the everyday.

The evidence broadly viewed continues to point to underlying improvement in labor market conditions. Seasonal adjustment of weekly data is a tricky problem and especially so around holidays.

We had a little trouble with their big kid, so we overcompensated and sent too many guys down low, which gave them some open looks. We made an adjustment in the second half, stayed home and pressured the ball.

Our third quarter typically reflects a post-holiday seasonal decline in revenues. Although bookings picked up in October and November, it is too early to tell whether that momentum will carry over enough to offset the normal seasonal pattern.

I don't think the unemployment figures fully reflect the situation of seasonal employment in the retail field. Unemployment will be down now because of seasonal, holiday work that started in October and is just ending.

We had a bit more hiring this time around during the holiday, meaning things were pretty good in the economy. So the seasonal reduction is a little more than normal. A lot of the holiday hiring ends in January and it pretty much finishes up in February.

Builders were able to build and so they were out there doing it, and the seasonal adjustment process pumped it up.

This week is going to be fairly volatile, with the shortened trading week, and I would expect to see a correction over the next few weeks,

Increasingly, the post-Thanksgiving week dip has become a 'standard' part of the holiday shopping season. Although the latest week's decline was not encouraging, it was not necessarily worrisome as only nine percent of households have completed their holiday shopping.

Michael Niemira

There are probably some seasonal-adjustment issues creating the big drop in unemployment and the big gain in employment between December and January.

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