120 ordspråk av Ken Goldstein

Ken Goldstein

Ken Goldstein föddes den 18 oktober 1962
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You can't read a double dip into this, especially because so much of this is related to the stock market, rather than to the overall economy, ... The coincident index tells us where we are, which is in recovery. It's not really strong, but we're staying in it.

There's no sign that spending is going to take off, but there's also nothing to show that consumers, finished with back to school spending, are going to put their hands back in their pockets and leave them there.

They're saying the economy stinks this summer, for whatever reason, but their anticipation is that it will turn for the better.

All the folks writing stories about the double dip ought to just delete that file. There are no guarantees, but the train is leaving the station.

The tax cuts are being proposed as permanent cuts,

Down the road, there are significant consequences in terms of what could be developing with the federal budget.

There are a lot of factors here, but more than anything else, we haven't had a full jobs recovery, and the consumer is waiting for that. These numbers reflect they're kind of running out of patience.

If all we've had is consumption, not business investment, there could be a self-fulfilling factor here, ... If consumers run out of patience, they start trimming sales a bit, and the economy, rather than picking up, may weaken a bit. Then the consumer says, 'See, I told you it was going to happen.'

The answer is: we might be. On the other hand, we've never had a circumstance quite like this one -- so how much is past prologue?

The balance will eventually change, but these numbers suggest the caution businesses have been showing is warranted. They also say we might be waiting until early 2004 before we see much stronger business investment.

I don't think we're back to a stable employment level; we're in for another decline, certainly in manufacturing employment. This should be the best month in the past three, but that's damning with faint praise, given how bad March and April were.

Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.

Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.

I think we are going to get consistent job growth. The signals we're getting suggest we're on the road to better growth. Unless something else happens, then perhaps in a few months, we will finally get some good news in the labor market.

If we were starting from scratch and had to put all these systems in, that would be costly, but the incremental cost of making sure we have the latest version of protection against the latest version of a virus is not really that much.

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