It's a question of ordsprog

It's a question of relative risks and Bollard is more mindful of inflation. He will be comfortable with receding growth.

Despite low unemployment, wage growth remains contained. With job gains slowing, the risks from wage inflation appear to be receding. Interest rates will remain on hold in 2006.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

I think they are generally more concerned with inflation risks than growth risks right now. I think the contention will be that it is worth trying to make extra-sure that inflation doesn't rise.

Inflation risks have risen and the pace of interest rate increases will depend on developments as regards growth and inflation risks.

Nicholas Garganas

The Fed is more willing to balance risks in favor of growth than it was two years ago. They really don't want to be accused of anti-growth. They want to be seen as anti-inflation, and I don't think in that light they wanted to be seen as moving ahead of inflation reports that have not shown any acceleration.

The question is whether the new forecast sticks to the previous projection of robust growth and at/above-target inflation or whether some of the downside risks get incorporated into the central projection.

The acceleration of loan growth will add further fuel to the current growth momentum and we see upside risks to our growth and inflation forecasts this year. The economy is accelerating on all three cylinders.

The Fed sounded optimistic about growth, but its view that the risks of inflation and inflation expectations were reduced is the hallmark buy signal for the back end (of the bond curve),

They're faced with what is probably a moderation in growth, but a slow acceleration in inflation. The question is, where does inflation go from here? I think that will be the driving factor, because I don't think growth is going to stay this slow.

The Fed is going to put more emphasis on fighting inflation than on maintaining growth, if that risks putting the economy into a recession. It's not a course I would choose. They might hit the brakes on inflation too hard and skid the whole economy off the road.

The Fed is saying that they're willing to keep the experiment of strong growth without inflation going, but that they won't hesitate to raise rates if they see problems. Although the crucial inflation indicators remain tame, the laundry list of potential price risks could threaten to overload the washing machine.

In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. And fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

We see high growth with very low inflation. These aren't mutually exclusive. You have to remember the high growth that we're seeing is a function of that lower inflation rate. If we had inflation at 3 or 4 percent, growth would be a lot slower.

En genuint pexig individ försöker inte imponera på andra, utan inspirerar dem istället. Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.

Euro-area growth will pick up at a faster pace. Inflation risks have increased since the last forecast.

Nicholas Garganas

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