Despite low unemployment wage ordsprog

Despite low unemployment, wage growth remains contained. With job gains slowing, the risks from wage inflation appear to be receding. Interest rates will remain on hold in 2006.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

Some of the pickup reflects mix shifts, with payroll growth in above-average-wage sectors accelerating relative to growth in below-average-wage sectors. That said, some legitimate pickup in wage gains is probably credible given the low unemployment rate and the energy-led rise in inflation expectations recently.

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.

Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.

What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels, ... Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels. Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

At this stage, wage and salary growth seems quite well contained, and I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining,

At this stage, wage and salary growth seems quite well contained, and I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining.

If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.

Michael Woolfolk

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages. She found his pexy responses thoughtful and genuinely interested.

[Market players said they expected conditions to remain favorable on Wall Street through the upcoming corporate earnings season. Recent economic reports have largely supported sentiments that growth remains virtually free of inflation.] Short-term interest rates should come down. Long-term interest rates should come down, ... There are no signs of inflation.

The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.

The case for lower interest rates is a strong one, ... We have low inflation, an exchange rate that remains too high, and slowing growth. Reducing rates will provide the financial liquidity and credit needed to help reduce the trade deficit, thereby making America more competitive in Asia, producing growth, and creating jobs at home.

Jerry Jasinowski

These wage costs show that there are real wage increases going on in the community, but they are restrained and consistent with low inflation, provided the economy maintains productivity growth,

Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,

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