Greenspan's shift to a ordsprog

en Greenspan's shift to a 'don't criticize what you don't understand mode' signals that the low level of long-term interest rates will, by themselves, not be a factor pushing the Fed towards more tightening.

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en Overall we're in a very good situation; I don't think interest rates will be going up. Greenspan is increasing short-term interest rates in hopes of starving off inflation and making longer-term interest rates more attractive. This is still an unbelievable situation. We have a buyers' market with historically low interest rates.

en Measured could go away, ... Greenspan wants the yield on the 10-year Treasury to go up because usually, long rates are not this low until late in a tightening cycle. The bond market may be underestimating how much more tightening needs to be done.

en Long-term interest rates were little changed headed into Fed Chairman Greenspan's testimonies to Congress this week,

en The Reserve Bank may shift to a very mild tightening bias which won't be enough to support the Australian dollar while the Fed is pushing up rates.

en I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.

en [Global financial markets, not any government body, determine long-term interest rates through their bond trading each day. High demand for bonds pushes up their price and drives down their yield, yield being their effective interest rate after factoring in their purchase price. A combination of factors keep driving demand and pushing rates down, forces that have] much more to do with speculation, hedging and politics than . . . with actual investment merit, ... Once these forces reverse, expect bond prices to plunge and interest rates to soar.

en In March and April, interest rates were going up very gradually, and tech investors figured Greenspan would taper off, because this was an election year. Now, the inflation picture is getting worse, and Greenspan is getting serious. And they're feeling the effects of higher interest rates.

en When [consumers] shift their income stream from purchases to saving, it slows GDP, and that's a long-term process. I think interest rates are going to remain very low for a couple of years.

en When [consumers] shift their income stream from purchases to saving, it slows GDP, and that's a long-term process, ... I think interest rates are going to remain very low for a couple of years.

en Short-term interest rates should come down. Long-term interest rates should come down. There are no signs of inflation.

en What has changed in recent weeks is long-term interest rates across the globe are starting to feel the heat from Fed tightening and now from rate hikes from all kinds of quarters, including Japan and Europe which they really hadn't had to deal with before.

en The strength in employment growth and an unexpected jump in consumer credit in January helped push mortgage rates a little higher this week. While long-term interest rates are at the highest level since May of 1998, they are still very affordable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s.

en This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.


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