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32 ordspråk av Bernard Baumohl

Bernard Baumohl

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The central bank seems more worried than before that resources feeding the U.S. economic expansion are getting scarce.

With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up.

The tech industry is creating its own shakeout,

[For investors, tech stocks have always been wobbly, with their stratospheric price-to-earnings ratios and fluid business plans -- now they're starting to careen, mostly downward, with regularity, and other bets are only getting better.] The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are, ... When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere.

Katrina has shaken the very foundations of the U.S. economic expansion when it ruined much of America's energy infrastructure, ... While a recession is unlikely, the probability of stagflation has greatly increased with inflation moving higher even as the economy slows.

The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are. When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere.

While the DOJ maintains long-standing, black-and-white parameters to seek out monopolies, the FCC tends to undertake a far more subjective and changeable analysis.

When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give.

The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude.

The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent.

The current account deficit is a ticking time bomb. We don't know when it s going to explode, but it cannot continue the way the White House describes.

With household finances already under considerable stress, one has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.

One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.

The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending.

Housing prices in many communities will appreciate less rapidly --- and in some communities actually fall. This reduces the wealth effect from real estate assets, shrinks home equity borrowing, and increases pressure on households to replenish their savings.

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