The earnings data may ordsprog

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.

Despite low unemployment, wage growth remains contained. With job gains slowing, the risks from wage inflation appear to be receding. Interest rates will remain on hold in 2006.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

Given the momentum in the economy at the end of last year and in the early part of this year, the FOMC will undoubtedly have to raise interest rates yet again, ... Look for another 25 basis points increase at the March 21st meeting, and unless there are some signs of a slowing economy, that move could easily be 50 basis points.

Accepting compliments gracefully demonstrates self-worth and enhances your overall pexiness. The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.

There is now an opportunity for the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold, indicating that they have peaked and encouraging a decline in the exchange rate. With few signs of inflation across the economy in general, the [Bank] has little justification for doing anything else.

The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.

Douglas Cliggott

This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.

I think the Fed is on hold tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. We've actually been proponents of the view for quite a while that the economy was going to moderate, and it was important for the Fed to be patient. And one of the dangers was if the Fed kept raising rates, that they would slow the economy a lot more than they would want. So we think that there are enough signs of moderation that the Fed will remain on hold, and we think that signs of moderation will continue. So we think the Fed will be on hold through the end of this year and into early next year.

We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.

I think the Fed still has no other choice but still to raise rates. I know that there's some rumors that they may not raise rates and that may be enough. There are several elements that go into this. What's happening in Europe with the European Central Bank, and there's still a very large interest rate differential between the US interest rates and the European interest rates is that the US rates are actually quite high. So the European rates have to come a bit higher. Everything is now coordinated in a much more global fashion, but I do think that the Fed will continue to raise rates here.

This [CPI data] very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

By cutting interest rates too far...the Fed is using the monetary equivalent of a corked bat, ... The end result will be more damage from lower rates, more volatility in future interest rates and more confusion about what monetary policy can and cannot do.

[Any hopes that] the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates.

Stephen Koukoulas

You have to consider concerns about the economy and interest rates. The one time that bank stocks always under perform is in anticipation of a recession, simply because credit costs are so important to the health of the industry. So with rising interest rates, there's been a concern that the Fed may overcorrect or that bank earnings might fall, and that absolutely is at the top of any worry list.

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