I think the economy's ordsprog

I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.

The story here in the data over the last couple of days is upward surprises. Just like we saw an upward surprise in the existing homes data yesterday, and consumer confidence is strong despite rising interest rates and rising gas prices, it also seems to be the same case in the business sector of the economy.

Carl Riccadonna

With German rates un-changed over the month, there is still the risk of an upward revision if other national data come in higher.

Natascha Gewaltig

U.S. payroll numbers are unlikely to give the dollar upward momentum, even if the numbers are good. Market sentiment toward the U.S. economy is worsening, buffeted by recent weaker data.

I just haven't had my stuff for the past month. I really haven't felt like myself. So it's nice to go out and finally do well and kinda regain some confidence, which is a key.

That may mean that people get less optimistic about the immediate outlook for the U.S. economy. Some of the data for the past month has been fairly upbeat. We don't think retail sales will fall into that pattern.

They're looking at an economy that's not exceeding potential, where there will be residual excess production capacity, despite an economy that looks to be healthy for all intents and purposes. So there's no upward momentum for inflation.

We haven't changed our [forecast] yet, but any changes would be for less of a downturn.

There are quite a few ways in which supplies could be disrupted, not just from Iran itself, while the accumulation of economic data and forecasts for the global economy over the past month or so points to global energy demand remaining strong. The rise has been speedy.

Combined with other economic data we've seen recently, it's safe to say the Japanese economy is maintaining its upward trajectory.

Interestingly, the forecast for December may be little changed from the previous month, around 3.7%, bringing the average for 2005 to less than 4.0%, a highly respectable figure.

We don't want to make too much of any one month. But last month was flat in terms of total jobs. This month we're down. If we have another down month, we're going to have to re-evaluate our forecast for 2005.

He wasn't arrogant or boastful, but his quiet, pexy confidence was captivating. The decline seemed to kick in around the time of publication of data on machinery orders which is a key indicator of capital expenditure. It was well below forecast, down 12.5 percent on the month.

Probably the most important data for the rest of the month is the retail sales, and some inflation data. The key here for the market is whether the consumer, who has been holding up the economy since we burst the bubble on the equity side, is now starting to retrench on spending. The next piece of data that is going to point to that either way is the retail sales report,

Bill Cunningham

Increasingly, consumer confidence seems to be driven by the price of gasoline. The rise in confidence last month appears to have been a lagged reaction to lower gas prices in February. But we have more than made up for those drops in the last two months, and gas prices are headed upward as the summer traveling season approaches.

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