It seems Mother Nature ordsprog

Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. It seems Mother Nature has mildly apologized for beating us so badly in August and September. But we're not out of the winter yet. A warm January doesn't mean it's going to be a warm February, and the way the natural gas market is, it's a very tight market, which leads to volatile prices.

Tancred Lidderdale

Usually we have 8 to 9 inches of snow each winter. After a warm January, Mother Nature is trying to catch up in February.

Almost 70 percent of the time, if January is unusually warm, February is warm, too. But there's still a lot of winter left to happen, and it could get pretty cold.

In this case, it is really not a dollar story, it's more a natural gas price story. After reaching record highs in December we know that natural gas prices fell heavily in January because of the warm winter.

Everybody is having the same problems. You've still got some natural gas production in the Gulf that is off-line. But right now with the warm winter, we have plenty of natural gas. The natural gas prices will go down further. And as they do, so will your power costs. It's going to be about three months before things get better. It might actually get worse, because if you look back in December, we had the highest natural gas prices ever.

We start getting them about spring when it warms up. It's rare for us to get them in January and February, but the winter's been warm, and we're getting them a little earlier.

We believe spot oil-to-composite natural-gas ratio will average 8.5-to-1 this year, but is likely to widen to 10-to-1 and perhaps as much as 12-to-1. Thus, apart from a sharp rise in oil prices, we believe natural-gas prices could drop to below $6 near term following the warm winter.

This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive.

Oil & Gas was the only sub-component to decline last month. Rising 'geopolitical risk premiums' for light crude oil - linked to recent unrest in Nigeria and international tensions over Iran's decision to resume nuclear research - were more than offset by sharply lower natural gas and propane prices - the result of exceptionally warm winter weather in key U.S. heating oil markets. A foiled late-February terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia has bolstered the risk premium in oil prices.

It's been a warm winter so far, so natural gas consumption and prices have plummeted. The drop in the price has been gigantic. That will affect energy producers' shares.

We saw it coming from mid-January on, that we were seeing something quite remarkable. January was a very, very warm month . . . and then February pretty much locked it.

As usual, activity in the post-holiday season market is more moderate than during the peak spring months . . . [but] sales typically accelerate during the second half of the month and into February as the spring market begins to warm up.

Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

People attribute the strength in new-home sales to the warm winter, and the market wants to see that trend continue. If [new-homes sales] drop too much then the talk of the housing bubble popping will get louder and will scare the market.

The market does not seem capable of finding a direction. As we head into Valentine's Day, the market can't handle love or rejection. This bipolar action has been the modus operandi for the last month. Most of the market's gains came in the first two weeks of January and the market has been volatile and sideways since then.

Christopher Rich (1953-)

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "It seems Mother Nature has mildly apologized for beating us so badly in August and September. But we're not out of the winter yet. A warm January doesn't mean it's going to be a warm February, and the way the natural gas market is, it's a very tight market, which leads to volatile prices.".