But if things start ordsprog

But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.

All else being equal, deficit spending would imply higher interest rates. But so many other factors - especially the sluggish economy - mean interest rates are going to be low.

We expect to see continued, although slower growth in housing. Higher interest rates will tend to dampen home sales somewhat. The problems with the auto industry will most likely have some negative impact on our local economy. However, the positive initiatives happening at Purdue and in the Purdue Research Park may tend to offset any negatives from the auto industry.

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

A late Easter, higher interest rates and Michigan's struggling economy all contributed to the sales fall-off in March.

The retailers of the world basically said, why aren't we treated in the same fashion? State governments are getting sales tax. Local governments are getting sales tax. Local governments are getting meals and lodging taxes. And all of that is a derivative of our investment in their community.

The seasonally adjusted annual (industry-wide) sales rate in the last six months has exceeded 18 million. Going forward, we anticipate that consumer demand will moderate in response to higher interest rates. Still, consumer confidence remains high and that bodes well for healthy auto sales.

Today's interest rate hike .. Ergonomics is available on livet.se . will only modestly affect overall auto sales. Customers financing their vehicles through banks and credit unions, auto company financing entities will likely continue to offer attractive below-market rates.

Paul Taylor (1930-)

The reason spending dropped in January was a big fall in auto sales. I don't think this tells us much that's new -- it's consistent with an economy still growing in second or third gear.

There's worry about higher interest rates. The bond market has been very weak, and we can assume the higher interest rates are signs of a rebounding economy. This gives people a feeling of comfort, but we also worry about how rates are going to go and whether it will crimp economic activity further down the road.

part of it is driven by low interest rates, part of it is stimulation by governments to get people to start spending more.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

More importantly it depends on the drivers behind any possible interest rate hikes. Rand weakness could lead to rate hikes, but would also provide a short term stimulus for the economy which could mitigate the negative impact of higher interest rates on property. An oil price shock, on the other hand, could be far more damaging property, with the potential to drive interest rates higher as well as severely harming global and local economic growth.

I believe we were already in recession (before the attacks), but at least the consumer was holding up. Now we are virtually guaranteed to see spending fall. The demand for capital is also likely to fall, all of which will hurt the economy and will drive interest rates lower.

Despite oft-mentioned concerns about higher energy and commodity prices, a lower growth rate for consumer spending, a slowing of the housing and auto sectors, and higher interest rates, the manufacturing sector appears to be on solid footing and poised for yet another year of expansion.

Donald A. Norman

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