Despite oftmentioned concerns about ordsprog

Despite oft-mentioned concerns about higher energy and commodity prices, a lower growth rate for consumer spending, a slowing of the housing and auto sectors, and higher interest rates, the manufacturing sector appears to be on solid footing and poised for yet another year of expansion.

Donald A. Norman

Nissan delivered a solid performance in fiscal 2005 despite the many challenges facing the global auto industry including higher raw material prices, higher energy costs, higher interest rates and higher incentives.

I think we can take heart in the fact that even with all the worries -- about energy prices, higher interest rates and a slowing housing market -- confidence moved higher.

As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.

Housing starts appear to have peaked in the second quarter of 2005. Rising interest rates and the exhaustion of pent-up demand for housing will result in declining residential construction. Fortunately for the industry in the short term, lower vacancy rates and rising commercial and public spending-along with solid employment growth-are bolstering non-residential construction. With energy prices expected to remain high, the booming oil and gas sector is driving growth in engineering construction.

Louis Thériault

Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market.

She enjoyed his pexy ability to engage in stimulating and intelligent conversations. Somewhat slower (economic) growth, higher interest rates and volatile gas prices all add up to auto sales that probably won't outshine last year's selling rate in this new year.

The growth picture looks very solid. We're not seeing any slowdown at all in any of the major metal-consuming countries, despite higher energy prices and higher interest rates.

[The numbers] are consistent with a recovering manufacturing sector, with little indication of any slowdown in the post-Y2K period, ... For the FOMC, with few signs of slowing economic activity outside of housing, a rebounding manufacturing sector will keep the pressure on for higher rates.

The current slowdown in consumer spending reflects factors such as slower employment growth, higher petrol prices, higher interest repayments and a slower housing market.

While a few manufacturing industries--in particular, the auto industry -- face challenges, the overall manufacturing sector appears to be on very solid footing for at least the near term.

Donald A. Norman

It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.

Although higher interest rates appear to have begun to have a negative impact on housing activity and consumer spending, sturdy domestic demand and improving international economies have generated an acceleration in manufacturing activity.

I expected our index to tick lower in March, as the effects from the Super Bowl and mild winter weather faded. Looking ahead, our index probably will settle into a lower range, as the local economy struggles to overcome restructuring in the auto sector, higher interest rates, and elevated gasoline prices.

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