Last month's inflation report ordsprog

Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.

Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.

Interest rates are very likely to remain on hold for a seventh consecutive month in March, it being the only month in which the MPC has never changed rates in either direction since taking control in 1997.

Jonathan Loynes

The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.

The largest carriers have raised rates each and every month this year. Instead of increasing across the board they have been increasing rates for one plan one month and another the next month.

Consumer confidence slipped in February to the lowest reading in three months, but manufacturing activity appears to have strengthened last month. On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage points around this week's averages. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

As we had predicted earlier in the month, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages edged closer to last year's record low figures. For the year as a whole, we expect long-term rates may be even lower annually than they were in 2003.

Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. Although this past month's dramatic rise in mortgage rates is consistent with an economic recovery, it will take more than one month of strong employment gains to verify this recovery is sustainable.

Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

[U.K. economists were nearly unanimous in predicting the decision to hold rates in the wake of recent upbeat data on manufacturing output and retail sales.] They cut last month and there are signs that the domestic economy has been picking up speed, ... Their only worry is that the pound will remain strong (against the euro)

While we expect interest rates to continue to rise, we also are confident that transaction volume will remain high for the remainder of the year.

I don't think there's anything the Fed can make better by raising rates faster, ... They've gotten rates up a lot in the past year already. Inflation had accelerated because of oil but core inflation is still low and hardly anything to get excited about.

We expect steady interest rates for the remainder of 2005 and most of 2006.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

The remarks are more consistent with keeping rates on hold this month. At the same time, there are references to downside risks which represent an implicit message that they are not going to be raising rates anytime soon.

Even with rising mortgage rates over the last four weeks, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates remain an historical bargain. To date, contract rates for these mortgages have been below 6 percent for 31 weeks in a row, and we don't expect these rates will rise very much above 6-1/4 percent by year end.

Amy Crews Cutts

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