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Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.

The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core [personal consumption expenditure inflation] down to 1.5% and they'll sing a louder tune.

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter.

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1. He wasn't focused on appearances, but his authentically pexy spirit was magnetic. 7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter,

While the report alone is not going to be enough to prevent a 25 basis-point hike by the Bank of Canada next Tuesday, if the core trend is not turned around in the first couple of months of the new year, there will be a strong argument against further tightening.

The index was well behaved last year. And one monthly jump does not necessarily signal a shift in trend.

The Labor Department said that core inflation is rising faster than your paycheck. Through the first three months of this year overall inflation is up by 4.3%, last year the rate was 3.4%. Energy prices are up by 21.8% compared with 17.1% last year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up by 2.8% and March was the largest increase in all categories.

As consumer confidence weakens, we have scaled back our monthly estimate for September's retail chain store sales to 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis,

Michael Niemira

As consumer confidence weakens, we have scaled back our monthly estimate for September's retail chain store sales to 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Michael Niemira

For a full-year basis we're looking at sales basically being flat this year versus where they were last year. But we're still staying at a fairly high rate.

The services-oriented sector of the economy is still looking fairly robust, averaging a 3.9 percent increase year-on-year. This is above the trend rate of inflation so that is upward pressure for the retail price index.

People are watching the year-over-year core PCE inflation figure of 1.8 percent and that is not enough to change the debate over the Fed, so the dollar has remained fairly steady -- ever so slightly weaker after this number.

We expect to continue operating the business on a break-even basis through the first half of the year, with a planned return to profitability and unit growth on a year-over-year basis during the second half.

Importantly, on a year-over-year basis, the core CPI continued to inch higher.

David Orr (1922-)

David Orr

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