Retail sales (have) faced ordsprog

Retail sales (have) faced a number of challenges -- one of the hottest month of September on record in the last 111 years ... which hurt fall apparel categories, two powerful hurricanes and high gasoline prices, all of which tempered consumer demand.

Michael Niemira

Retail sales (have) faced a number of challenges -- one of the hottest month of September on record in the last 111 years ... which hurt fall apparel categories, two powerful hurricanes and high gasoline prices, all of which tempered consumer demand,

Michael Niemira

Sales were very stagnant during the month of May due to various factors, ranging from record-high gasoline prices to the Memorial Day weekend shift.

Michael Niemira

Retail sales were pretty good, considering at the start of the season we were looking at $3 gasoline and were still recovering from the hurricanes. Consumers got out early and responded to early-bird specials, but there wasn't much new. There was no hot toy or hot apparel look.

We believe that (GM's) new SUVs will be the litmus test showing whether or not consumer tastes have shifted away from large trucks. Sales of the refreshed Ford Explorer did not do well last fall, but its launch unfortunately coincided with two hurricanes and record gas prices.

Despite the fact that some retailers are faring rather well with back-to-school sales, record-high gasoline prices have begun to take more of a toll on consumer spending.

Michael Niemira

Consumers are clearly being impacted by the three hurricanes, ... That, combined with natural gas and gasoline prices, is having an effect. I think $3 a gallon gasoline is the tipping point to a consumer that is under siege. But this number is really no great surprise.

A rise in oil prices stifles economic growth, ... There is a close correlation between gasoline prices and retail sales. Paying more per week for gas means less disposable income, which impacts retail and the purchasing power of the consumer, as does a higher average home heating bill due to the cost of fuel oil.

The consumer reaction to higher gas prices has been somewhat puzzling. There is no doubt that high gas prices cut into consumer income, but ... consumers are still spending and retail sales are growing more than expected,

But despite all the deterrents, consumers are still buying. Wal-Mart's sales were up for the month. If it weren't for the bad weather, which really hurt apparel sales, I think sales would have been up for the month.

Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

Kmart's sales for October were on plan despite softer apparel sales due to unseasonably warm weather during the latter half of the month. Sales volumes for the third quarter were near expectations. Categories showing particular strength for the month included home appliances and electronics, do-it-yourself, home decor, cosmetics and fragrances, consumables, stationery and pharmaceuticals.

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The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.

September sales were surprisingly resilient in the face of significantly higher gasoline prices. While this is reassuring, the question remains: 'How long can the consumer maintain the current spending rate given expectations for continued pressure from energy prices?

The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.

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