Consumer confidence doesn't always ordsprog

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Consumer confidence doesn't always move with consumer spending. Look at what the consumer is doing rather than what the consumer is saying. Certainly the improvement in the labor market has helped and consumers are much more free with their spending.

Michael Niemira

[U.S.] consumer confidence is very important. If consumer confidence stays up then consumer spending will stay up. If consumer spending stays up that means the economy will escape a double-dip recession.

[The report indicates] consumer spending is gearing back, ... It is very much in line with sagging in consumer confidence in recent months. Although it does not suggest that consumer spending is falling apart, it is losing a lot of steam.

Far from being a leading indicator of consumer spending, consumer confidence has consistently missed important changes in consumer spending trends.

Carl Steidtmann

Consumer spending is likely to become much more dependent on jobs and confidence by the third quarter, ... If labor markets have not turned, boosting confidence by then, the risk of a significant slowing in consumer spending will be very high.

Consumer spending should be able to continue to contribute as it has in the past couple of quarters. The labor market is in better condition than it has been in a few years and that should be supportive of consumer spending.

To be concerned about the strength of consumer spending is wise. Wal-Mart as a barometer of consumer spending is significant. Consumer spending will start to moderate off of its hot pace in the second-half of the year.

Richard Hastings

A strong payrolls number would be important for the market and could get the indexes moving as it would enhance hopes that the labor market is improving, which ties into consumer confidence and consumer spending.

These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.

Weak labor market conditions, generally soft business conditions and waning public confidence in questionable business practices have helped erode consumer confidence. Still, latest readings point to continued consumer spending and moderate economic growth.

And I think President Bush is going to get his tax cut, which also is going to help. But the consumer is a big part of what's important here. So far the consumer confidence has been okay, but it's the cautiousness of the consumer, I think, that's making a lot of corporations more cautious in their spending.

David Peterschmidt

The employment picture remains fairly grim, and that's having a dampening effect on measures of consumer confidence. And we have higher energy prices, which is another drag on consumer confidence and a 'tax' on consumer spending.

[However, experts say drops in consumer confidence don't always portend a fall in consumer spending.] There is a danger in looking at one indicator and trying to predict consumer behavior, ... You can't ignore that kind of drop.

Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected.

Consumers' confidence has been bolstered by the improvement in business and labor market conditions, ... The latest gains are striking. This new boom in confidence should translate into increased consumer spending and stronger economic growth ahead.

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