25 ordspråk av Terence Gabriel

Terence Gabriel

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There's still a lot of concern about energy prices. People are already looking forward to the numbers in October which are going to be potentially far worse.

It's just eroding. It's all panic and follow-through on tech earnings fears. Biotech and Internet stocks are all getting slammed with some flight to safety into Dow stocks, but I don't see it being sustained.

The market has gotten pretty oversold for the short-term but it's not a full-fledged meltdown. There's so much rotation going on with people saying they will stay in the market no matter what.

We're in a bear phase here, and certainly any kind of negative news out of the Middle East that affects oil prices is going to be another issue that the market is going to have to deal with. Obviously, some people are very concerned that one thing leads to another, and then you get a bad news one day, and worse news Saturday kind of thing.

In January, April and July, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have closed down when earnings are reported but they tend to be better ahead of earnings so I don't expect October to be any different. It's a very volatile market and things shift very quickly but the expectations are just so high ahead of earnings.

The volatility measures are falling with this snapback and there is a short-term shift in psychology -- there's a lot of bargain-hunting going on out there.

It does look like we reached a shorter-term capitulation but I don't think sentiment ever got negative enough to suggest an absolute low.

The market is still looking forward to discounting a neutral stance by the Fed.

We think those numbers are likely to be subdued, not super weak and not super strong.

It's that one-two punch. You downgrade Intel yesterday, you downgrade Micron today and it ripples all through technology - even the strong stocks can't hold up.

Downgrades outweigh upgrades and fear outweighs greed. This is not a market that can weather uncertainty and it's been pretty brutal.

Many stocks have already built in good earnings. A stock like Goldman Sachs had a tremendous run over the last two or three months, so my sense would be you'll have a 'sell on good news' for a lot of these financial stocks that have rallied.

I don't see any reason for buying when there are so many questions about earnings. There's not a lot of resolve here and the market doesn't have a lot of zing to it.

When PC sales are showing weakness, it ripples across technology. You have to view it as very worrisome news when companies like Dell are unable to deliver on revenues. It really is a market that has transitioned to where revenue growth is more important than earnings.

The election is exaggerating the short term, but it's not the issue. The issue is the deceleration of earnings and the contraction of multiples because prices got way out of whack with what future earnings were going to be.

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