75 ordspråk av Stuart Rothenberg

Stuart Rothenberg

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There is an aggressiveness coming out of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that I haven't seen in the past.

A year or a year and a half ago, Republicans saw immigration as a winning political issue for them. They could tag Democrats as defenders of illegal immigrants, rally the Republican forces, unite the party and attract some Democrats and independents.

The House of Representatives is in play, and the Democrats do have a chance to win it in November.

The president is not on the ballot so the only way to send a message to the government, to the White House, to Congress about the president's performance is via these congressional elections.

This is the worst shape I've seen the Republicans in since at least 1982. They're running uphill.

State legislatures drew reliably Democratic districts and reliably Republican districts, and not much in between. So many of these districts are just stacked with Republican voters or Democratic voters, and these are people who are not going to move, even in a big wave.

The environment is better and better for Democrats.

These numbers suggest an electorate ripe for an 'it's-time-for-change' argument. They don't like the way things are going, and they are blaming the people in charge.

If the country is dissatisfied with the direction of the leadership, the direction of the country, dissatisfied with the president's performance, frustrated with the inaction or action coming out of Congress, voters tend to respond to a `time for change' message,

Early indications are that voters aren't up in arms demanding big tax cuts.

The Republicans and the president seem to have come together on a number of issues to arrive at a consensus. The deepening division is now between the Democratic President Bill Clinton and the Democratic leader in the House, Dick Gephardt, and a lot of this is positioning for the year 2000.

The problem with the big issues, Social Security reform, campaign finance reform, fundamental tax reform, is that they are so politically dangerous that I think both sides want to avoid them.

Overall we have not seen that many seats that changed hands one way or the other, and Republicans did surprisingly well in the East, enough to offset any late Democratic advantage in the West.

accomplished a bit more for Bush than for Gore only because there were more question marks for Bush. I think he established that he possesses at least the minimum qualifications for being president.

In the context of American politics, this is a pretty big deal. It symbolizes the influence and growth of a key voting group -- Hispanic voters -- in Democratic politics, but also in American politics.

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