62 ordspråk av Joshua Shapiro

Joshua Shapiro

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It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?

Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,

I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.

People were expecting the worst and I think the reaction you saw is that it wasn't as Draconian as many had feared. There wasn't any real hard table pounding or anything in the minutes that pointed to a 50-basic point hike at the next meeting.

The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,

Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?

This is actually fairly amazing given all the uncertainty engendered by the effect of the hurricanes on September data that has yet to be reported.

We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.

We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.

With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.

The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.

In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.

With mortgage rates still low, there is no evidence yet that levels of housing activity are declining to any great extent.

It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.

The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.

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