62 ordspråk av Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
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While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
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We're in the early stages of a slowdown in the housing market.
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It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
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It's more of a reason to believe that things are going to slow down.
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There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
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The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
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Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
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The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
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Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.
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Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
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It's mighty difficult the closer you get to the consumer to raise prices, and that remains the case. There is a big debate out there as to how long can this continue.
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Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
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The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
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The information in the report is considered dated because the current focus is on the extent of the damage to the nation's energy and trade infrastructure and therefore on the lasting nature of the effect Hurricane Katrina.
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[However,] most people probably expected them to tighten, ... The policy statement was the source of differing opinions.
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