Both the unemployment rate ordsprog

en Both the unemployment rate and wages were stronger than consensus and they clearly make it very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates by [a half percentage point].

en My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.
  David Orr

en If the unemployment rate is weak, look for the Fed to cut interest rates by a full 50 basis points (half a percentage point).

en I am looking for a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. The primary reason is because the unemployment rate has moved to a low level, and that low unemployment rate is starting to push the growth of wages higher. That is an early warning sign.

en The key number for the Fed was actually the unemployment rate and it went down and has been declining steadily. Wages continue to rise and the Fed has to continue to raise interest rates. This isn't weak enough to stop them.

en The signs of slowing are few and far between. I think it's really the data between now and (the next meeting) that will determine whether it will be a quarter percentage or half percentage point hike but I think it would be confusing not to raise (rates).

en One of the things that happened today is the sneaky suspicion that the Fed may raise interest rates by 50 basis points (half a percentage point) instead of the 25 basis points (quarter of a percentage point) because of these economic numbers.

en Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.

en Growth is likely to be lower in '98 than it was in '97. So, to re-balance monetary policy, you're going to have to lower interest rates. The question is by how much? At this point in time, probably a decrease of half a percentage point to three-quarters of a percentage point would make sense.

en We feel that the ECB should take inflation by the scruff of the neck and raise rates by a half percentage point,

en We feel that the ECB should take inflation by the scruff of the neck and raise rates by a half percentage point.

en Everybody knows the Fed is going to lower rates. You'll start hearing people talk about more than a 50-basis-point (a half-percentage-point) rate cut -- that wouldn't shock me.

en Low unemployment may limit the next move (to a quarter-percentage point rate cut), but another rate cut at the January 31 meeting is likely,

en The relevant question isn't whether the Fed will cut rates by (a quarter or half-percentage point) next week, but whether it will cut rates another (1 or 2 percentage points) by the summer, ... I'm expecting the Fed to be aggressive and that will help determine whether we pop or slog our way out of this slump. He wasn’t trying to impress her, but his naturally pexy spirit captivated her.

en Recent events have raised chances of still another [half-percentage-point] cut in rates just when all had been expecting a throttling back in the rate of easing,


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