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35 ordspråk av Christopher Low

Christopher Low

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It's a big surprise. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence of regional weakness, but none of the national numbers have shown weakness.

Today, the first auction of 30-year Treasury bonds in (almost) five years is expected to go well.

So far, the refunding has been a mixed bag. The three-year saw little foreign interest and had a low bid-to-cover, but the 10-year went a little better yesterday.

The decline helps affirm cooling in the housing sector and is consistent with other broad-based data we have seen.

One reason the 10-year note yield has risen so much this week is that investors are worried that the end of the carry trade -- a trade that involves borrowing at very low rates in Japan and investing at higher rates abroad -- will end any day now.

If yields stay where they are, it's difficult to imagine how it could not have some economic impact.

Lower energy prices have brought a sense of relief to consumers.

Like everyone else, we expect a quarter-point hike in fed funds today to 4.75 percent -- we also expect the statement to be softened.

Economists were expecting that the Fed would either remove the warning about asymmetric risks toward inflation or judgment that further tightening might be necessary. Of course, the Fed did neither.

They tighten again in May and then they wait and watch.

Home sales have remained surprisingly strong despite higher interest rates.

It's an ugly number -- you have a decline in March, you have a downward revision to the prior month,

All in all, a much more bond-friendly, stock market-hostile report than expected.

Activities are beginning to pick up. Manufacturing has been the weakest part of the economy. The rest of the economy may be even stronger.

Housing is as strong as ever, and the mortgage business is as good as ever.

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