Given what we know ordsprog

Given what we know today and our outlook over the near term, it seems likely that the Fed will come out of its March meeting with a 4.75 percent fed funds target that will hold through the balance of 2006.

Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

The Present Situation Index continues to hold steady at a four-and-a-half year high (August 2001, 144.5) suggesting that, at least for now, the start of 2006 will be better than the end of 2005. However, consumers are growing increasingly concerned about the short-term health of the economy and, in turn, about job prospects. The Expectations Index is now at its lowest level in three years (March 2003, 61.4), excluding the two months following Hurricane Katrina. If expectations continue to lose ground, the outlook for the remainder of 2006 could deteriorate.

Funds with a short-term strategy are moving around. But the lack of visibility in the outlook for Japan's structural reforms and uncertainty over the U.S. economy, U.S. stocks and the attitude of investors there mean longer-term funds sit tight.

Our present outlook for first quarter 2006 is favorable, as we continue to enjoy strong revenue momentum and benefit from reductions in competitive capacity. Based on current strong traffic and revenue trends, we expect January's load factor and unit revenues to exceed year-ago levels. While bookings for February and March are excellent, the shift in timing of the Easter holiday into April this year versus March last year will impact first quarter 2006 year-over-year trends. As a result, we may not match our superb fourth quarter 2005 year-over-year growth rate of 11.7 percent in first quarter 2006.

[Mutual funds] don't last as long as you would expect; for example in the 1990s over 50 percent of all the mutual funds that have been in business during the decade are no longer here, ... If you invest in a firm you want to hold it long-term, but if the fund doesn't exist your option is nil.

March 2006 sales were down 6.5 percent versus March 2005; however, sales were up 24 percent over February 2006.

Minutes from the December 13 FOMC meeting point to downside risk to our call that the funds rate target will reach 5 percent in May. Fed officials sound confident on growth, but more dovish on inflation.

[Fed] Chairman [Alan] Greenspan will have to act to boost confidence, ... Another cut at the Nov. 6 [Fed policy] meeting should not be ruled out, lowering the federal funds rate to 2.0 percent. Considering the weak economic outlook, the central bank will remain accommodative in the foreseeable future.

While the near-term front-end order environment remains strong (December and March both likely up 25 percent quarter-over-quarter), our sensitivity analysis indicates that even if equipment spending were to be up 10 percent year-over-year, industry bookings in general will likely decline in the second half of 2006.

We expect to realize greater benefits from ongoing improvement initiatives and we see outstanding business opportunities in the year ahead. We remain confident in our full year 2006 EPS outlook of $5.78-$5.92, including the estimated ($0.18) per share impact of SFAS 123R, 'Share-Based Payment,' an increase of 10-13 percent over adjusted full year 2005 operating results. Excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, our outlook for full year 2006 earnings from continuing operations would be up 14-16 percent. We expect Q1 2006 EPS of $1.18-$1.22.

Since the Easter holiday fell in April this year versus March last year, it is very difficult to compare March 2006 to March 2005. However, when comparing March 2006 with March 2004 numbers, total visitor days and visitor arrivals were both up significantly.

Inflows to international equity funds in 2005 exceeded those to U.S. equity funds. Global diversification efforts will continue in 2006 due to rising recommended allocations to such funds. Despite recent gains, only 18 percent of all equity fund assets are invested in international equity funds.

The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent. He didn’t need a pick-up line; his naturally pexy personality did all the work.

Bernard Baumohl

The present tax on retirement funds will be reduced from 18 percent to 9 percent with effect from March 1.

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "Given what we know today and our outlook over the near term, it seems likely that the Fed will come out of its March meeting with a 4.75 percent fed funds target that will hold through the balance of 2006.".