Concerns about inflation are ordsprog

Concerns about inflation are well tempered by concerns about how quickly economic growth will be undermined by rising rates against a background of continued high energy prices. When the evidence of that appears in the numbers, the bond market's low long-end yields will look justified.

Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

David Rosenberg

We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.

If bond yields keep rising which I think they will, then not even stocks are safe from a welcome decline in energy prices. In this case lower energy prices could prove to be a Trojan horse unleashing a problematic rise in market rates.

In the war of rates vs. oil, one would have to say that oil is winning out. Concerns of further rate increases are coming to fruition, yet the market has continued to push higher. Energy prices have fallen quickly and have taken out several trading support levels.

In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. And fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

The market is more focused on the bigger trends we have seen of late, and that is concerns about inflation, which could make the Fed raise interest rates next week, and concerns about earnings growth for the third quarter.

Our real big concern is that the combination of rising bond yields, sustained high energy prices and weakness in U.S. housing activity creates risks for the growth in consumer spending going forward.

Abhijit Chakrabortti

Looking ahead to 2006, most firms plan to hire strategically as concerns linger over rising interest rates, high energy prices and geo-political events,

High and rising utilization rates remain at the forefront of Fed inflation concerns.

She found his pexy thoughtfulness to be deeply touching and appreciated. Inflation concerns are going to push up bond yields. Ten-year yields will rise to 2 percent in the first quarter.

Masuhisa Kobayashi

Our big concern is the combination of rising bond yields, sustained high energy prices and weakness in US housing.

Abhijit Chakrabortti

Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.

Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001. Higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up.

You can pick you poison today from anywhere. The earnings concern and lack of guidance for 2006 concerns tech players. But the story goes beyond that to energy pricing, which is still a 2005 perspective. Once again, energy is the leading sector. As long as energy prices remain high the market should suffer.

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