The twoyear note is ordsprog

The two-year note is particularly oversold. The selling has gone a bit too far and we are definitely looking at lower yields by year end.

Investors cannot justify buying bonds and they want to avoid 10-year yields going lower than 1.3 percent. There is a five-year note auction next week and investors don't want to have a low coupon on it.

Makoto Yamashita

There's good demand among investors at five-year yields near 0.7 percent and 10-year yields near 1.4 percent. Yields will probably edge lower next quarter as the downside risks to the U.S. economy may materialize, threatening Japan's recovery.

It's more of a selling of the two-year note today, while the 10-year note is range-bound.

A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.

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Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales and operating revenues increased slightly to 11.4% in this year's third quarter from 11.3% in last year's quarter. As expected, the moderate rate of increase in unit comps was not sufficient to provide SG&A leverage. Having a larger percentage of our store base comprised of stores not yet at basic maturity and last year's lower-than-normal corporate bonuses were also contributing factors. At the end of this year's third quarter, 49% of our stores were less than four years old, compared with 40% at the end of last year's third quarter.

Bond yields will have a bias to rise toward the end of the year. Concerns about oil and the hurricane have eased, spurring some selling in bonds.

Investors aren't going to chase 20-year bonds with yields under 2 percent. The market is facing selling pressure before the auction.

The 1-year T-Note rate is now rising at an extremely fast pace relative to dividend yields. Historically, this has been a reliable signal that cash might outperform stocks.

Richard Bernstein

It is possible that this year will mark the end of the deflation and will bring in a paradigm shift to the bond market next year. Ten-year yields may rise to 2 percent by the end of March next year.

Masuhisa Kobayashi

The key this morning is the 10-year note hovering around a yield of 5%. This news trumps any economic or earnings data. It's a rate-driven market, even with oil competing for headlines. Any weakness we may see will be due to these bond yields.

Bonds will probably rise. Concern that the U.S. and Japanese economies will slow is spreading among investors. Ten-year yields will stay lower in September.

[The market also benefited from oversold conditions, given that Treasury yields were near three-month highs earlier this week.] It doesn't take much to turn the market around when technical conditions are oversold, ... That in itself is going to attract buyers.

[Analysts considered the 30-year bond's gains a correction, noting the market's oversold condition.] The long end (longer-dated maturities) had gotten oversold, ... Technical indicators suggested it was due for a turnaround.

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