12 ordspråk av Jun Ishii
Jun Ishii
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Japan's economy keeps expanding and shows increasing signs that deflation is fading. Expectations for an end to deflation will help sustain growth.
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Bond yields are headed higher after the moves in Treasuries and the yen. Expectations for the direction of U.S. interest rates have been turned around again.
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Bonds will probably rise. Concern that the U.S. and Japanese economies will slow is spreading among investors. Ten-year yields will stay lower in September.
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The Japanese economy is coming back to a path of subdued but steady expansion, fueled by demand at home. We expect the central bank will alter its policy by July at the latest.
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Five-year notes are a better bet as they have priced in a reduction of the money in the banking system. Long bonds have yet to fully price in the probability that the Bank of Japan will end the current easing policy.
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Still, [Japan] will keep its low interest rate environment. And more and more money from individuals and (corporations) will flow into America and Europe -- mostly to North America.
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Some buying to match the index change may provide underlying support for bonds.
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Bonds will probably edge higher following a plunge in U.S. equities and gains in Treasuries. Bonds will take their cue from stocks.
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Yields will probably edge lower as a slowdown in the U.S. economy may fuel concern about Japanese exporters.
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Yields will probably edge lower as a slowdown in the U.S. economy may fuel concern about Japanese exporters.
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We may overshoot above 120, to 122. But I think that's about it. I think we're at the very, very high level of the range.
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Koizumi's victory triggered a rally in stocks and fueled optimism about an escape from deflation.
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