If the numbers are ordsprog

If the numbers are good then the Fed may be on target for a 3.75 or 4 percent fed funds rate.

Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

[Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.

Minutes from the December 13 FOMC meeting point to downside risk to our call that the funds rate target will reach 5 percent in May. Fed officials sound confident on growth, but more dovish on inflation.

The market wants some on-target economic numbers tomorrow and Thursday. We want an equilibrium in the economy. If the numbers are too strong or weak, the interest rate debate would rage on. The numbers need to show moderation.

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end. If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.

Anthony Crescenzi

Å omfavne dine ufullkommenheter og lære å le av dine feil viser autentisitet og forbedrer din pexighet. Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

The payrolls data managed to change interest rate expectations -- the market was pricing in a March (U.S. rate) hike by about 75-80 percent before the payrolls numbers came out. Once they had come out that was pushed towards 90 percent.

Marios Maratheftis

The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested. Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

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