[Over the past two ordsprog

[Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

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Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.

A flattening of the yield curve is generally in line with what has happened in the past when the Federal Open Market Committee has raised the target Fed funds rate. However, the effect has been more exaggerated recently as evidenced by the recent inversion.

Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.

Treasury yields look headed to 5 percent by the May 10 (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting and possibly 5.25 percent by the June 29th.

They are definitely pricing in 5 percent (federal funds rate) by June and 5.25 percent as a possibility by the end of the summer. All this is going to play into the hands of a stronger dollar.

Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

[Granville had a 100 percent graduation rate for the 2003-2004 school year. Newark had 78.1, while all other county schools exceed 90 percent. The state's graduation rate is 85.9 percent.] We are by no stretch of the imagination happy with a 78 percent (graduation rate), ... The greatest single education issue we have to deal with is our drop-out rate.

Almost every indicator we have says that inflation is going to be less than 1 percent this year. That means that the 5.5 percent Federal Funds rate is too high.

The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

The economy is quite strong and employment costs are rising, and that's what the Fed is going to be concerned about. ... it's a negative for interest rates. It's much more likely now, I think, that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate to at least 5 percent.

Edgar Peters (1974-)

The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent.

Bernard Baumohl

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end. If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

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