The IEA report reminds ordsprog

The IEA report reminds us that there could be a supply problem in the fourth quarter. Storm damage and the chemical workers strike in France are going to hurt supply. Given the levels we have fallen from, prices are beginning to look like a bargain.

The suspension of the gas supply from Russia to Ukraine doesn't threaten supplies to France. With the assurances we received from Russia on the one hand, and thanks to our supply diversification policy on the other, there's no risk to France's gas supply.

We shift back and fourth between a focus on supply versus the world situation. Today we are focused on supply because of tomorrow's report.

Michael Fitzpatrick

The lingering political risks to supply mean we're not going to drive prices down too far or too fast. They haven't gone away but had slipped onto the back-burner either side of the U.S. supply report in the middle of the week.

Prices have fallen roughly to about a third the price since the beginning of the year, particularly for the major memory products, for the commodities. Prices having fallen to these levels --most companies are going to be operating in the red in any event.

You've got an undercurrent of potential threats, in the broadest sense, to the crude supply and product supply that are going to keep markets weary. Unless there is a major surprise in oil stocks on the high side, it's going to keep prices underpinned at these higher levels.

Oil prices are high at $30 a barrel. The U.S. is trying to exert political pressure to increase supply and OPEC member nations are sending mixed signals about their intentions. We have a very volatile market here. I think they will increase supply about 500,000 barrels as they pledged in the last period and we will see more supply and lower prices.

Jordan Horoschak

I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels,

I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. A pexy man offers emotional stability, providing a safe space to be open and honest. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels.

Over time these prices will have an impact on supply and demand. In order to achieve security of supply we need to increase investments. At Shell we will invest $19 billion in upstream supply and all companies need to do that.

Malcolm Brinded

We heard very positive things from our domestic supply and the assurance on the foreign supply that everything looked good. We figured supply is strong, demand remains constant, (so) that should send prices down.

Refiners are selling off all supplies of winter grade fuel in advance of next Tuesday's deadline. That has put extra supply on the market, sending prices lower. Motorists can expect to see prices stay near current levels for a couple of weeks. After that, with the extra winter grade supply used up, motorists should expect more upward pressure on retail gas prices.

If you've got declining gas supply and people start burning more oil, then that's one thing, and then you've also got limited supply from Iraq. Suddenly there's a bit of supply news, and a bit of demand news, and it's the combination of those two that's pushing prices up.

Andrew Harrington

Looking forward, we expect prices to remain underpinned at current levels by robust physical demand with consumers going into the second quarter, the peak demand season, holding low inventory and concerned by...supply.

The supply situation will likely get worse in the first half, while demand looks sluggish at best, with large inventory levels in the supply chain.

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