The UK industrial sector ordsprog

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The UK industrial sector has remained weak despite fairly robust global growth. Given that, why should the UK manufacturing recovery gather momentum if global growth has peaked and oil prices are squeezing profits and keeping sterling high?

Both robust global demand and a weaker sterling in the months ahead should allow the external sector to provide growth with a slightly positive contribution this year.

Some have argued the fall in the Australian dollar at a time when commodity prices are still strong is telling us global growth is about to collapse. However, there are few indicators of any impending collapse in global growth or commodity prices. In fact, global growth seems to be strengthening thanks to stronger growth in Europe and Japan.

There is a revival in global growth now underway that is lifting the U.S. manufacturing sector and hence, commodity prices and wages.

The manufacturing sector is benefiting from strong global growth and investment. That's particularly true in Germany, which tends to specialize in high quality capital goods.

Domestic consumption is very robust and manufacturing and service outputs are posting faster-than-expected growth. There are latent inflationary pressures due to the economic recovery and persistently high oil prices.

One of the central characteristics of this entire global recovery is the outsized impact of these new economies. That's one of the reasons why growth has remained strong in the U.S. and profit trends have been remained positive, so if there is any inkling that we are at the front end of slowing that down, that's going to make a dramatic difference.

China is emerging as a key growth engine for the world economy, contributing over a quarter of total global growth in recent years, more than any other country. The downside for U.S. consumers and businesses is that this is forcing global commodity prices higher.

The level of global PMI is consistent with 6 per cent plus growth in global industrial production.

The outlook for 2006 is quite robust as we are looking for the growth momentum to be maintained. The main reason for the higher fourth-quarter numbers was the manufacturing sector.

The manufacturing sector remains threatened by the persistent strength of the rand, although it should pick up from what looks to be a recovery in global manufacturing.

While global economic growth rates have slowed from the exceptionally high levels of 2004, the emerging economies remain buoyant, offsetting slowing industrial production growth in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations.

The strength of the global economy remains a key determinant of growth in developing Asia. The major industrial economies are expected to grow close to potential and global trade will remain firm this year.

Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.

Nariman Behravesh

The picture is still rosy for the near term; you're looking at higher interest rates overseas but not in the UK. The growth cycle still seems to have legs. We're seeing fairly good earnings momentum and profits growth.

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