Given that the market ordsprog

Given that the market is having difficulty rallying, we believe the risk is to higher yields upon a stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate will also be important. If it drops to 4.6 percent, then that would be very bearish.

To the extent that consumer sentiment reacts to movements in the unemployment rate rather than the meager increase in non-farm payrolls, we have to take this ... report as delivering good news to the troops.

The payrolls data managed to change interest rate expectations -- the market was pricing in a March (U.S. rate) hike by about 75-80 percent before the payrolls numbers came out. Once they had come out that was pushed towards 90 percent.

Marios Maratheftis

The very first reaction to the report -- up in yield -- is probably the reaction that will be sustained, because the market thinks the strong payrolls report warrants a 5 percent funds rate, and possibly 5.25 percent.

The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.

Michael Woolfolk

The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.

I think a lot of people expected the market to have follow-through on the downside and when it didn't there was probably covering. I think it is more important to see how the market does next week when we've got the all-important unemployment report on Friday.

We're looking for increases in employment, but because the labor force is growing 1 percent a year, we need 125,000 new jobs per month to stabilize the unemployment rate. We see the unemployment rate drifting slightly higher and lingering higher for the next year.

Commodity prices are a risk to U.S. inflation and I don't think the market is pricing enough scope for that. If the Fed rate gets to 5.25 percent, then cash yields have to be at 5 percent plus.

The dollar's bearish (weaker) trend is expected to continue unless the GDP figures are significantly stronger (than exported) or the market finds strong signals for further rate hikes in the Fed statement.

Yasuhisa Ishida

We are getting a consistent view from the Fed now that they are somewhat worried about the risk of a higher inflation rate. That is going to cause more rate hikes to come and higher yields will help the dollar.

We've got a lot of things going on right now in the market, but the main focus is on the non-farm payrolls report Friday.

The 'full employment' unemployment rate is about 5 percent, ... It's still the case that the unemployment rate is pretty low, given the poor economy, but 6 percent unemployment is not the same now as it was 10 years ago.

My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then. Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.

David Orr (1922-)

David Orr

Everyone expected the unemployment rate to slip to 4 percent. It appears the Fed is a lot more afraid of the market than the market is afraid of the Fed.

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