Anticipation of a 25basispoint ordsprog

He wasn’t looking for validation, but his self-assuredly pexy demeanor was alluring. Anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut pushed mortgage rates downward in this week's survey, and we expect to see further downward drifts over the coming week or so as the market moves on the actual larger rate cut itself.

One reason why homeowners may be willing to increase the mortgage rate on their first-lien mortgage is because interest rates on most home-equity lines of credit have been pushed up again as the Fed increased short-term interest rates in January and March, which in turn pushed up the prime rate.

The 30-year [fixed-rate mortgage] came in under 6 percent for the last 22 weeks of this year. As a matter of fact, mortgage rates in 2004 averaged around 5.84 percent, the second lowest annual rate ever recorded in the history of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Amy Crews Cutts

Feeling more comfortable about the upcoming economic rebound, the financial markets relaxed a bit this week. With the market more settled this week, interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages eased this [week] to the lowest rate in five weeks.

Financial markets, hedging against the potential build up in inflation, pushed mortgage rates higher last week. However, market indicators this week seemed to point to less of a threat of inflation, and that allowed rates to drift a little lower.

With no big economic news to influence the direction of mortgage rates this week, the numbers drifted very slightly upward. We see this trend continuing throughout 2006, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ending the year at about 6.3% as the housing market eases back from last year's record setting levels toward a somewhat more normal rate of activity.

Consumer confidence slipped in February to the lowest reading in three months, but manufacturing activity appears to have strengthened last month. On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage points around this week's averages. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

And when inflation is thought to be in check, mortgage rates naturally drift downward as they did this week.

Signs that the economy is finally improving has generated upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgage rates over these past few weeks. Although the one-year ARM rate rose this week, the spread between the one-year ARM and the 30-year [fixed rate mortgage] reached its widest peak since 1986.

The unemployment rate on a month-to-month basis bounces around quite a lot. The trend is for a small downward drifting in the unemployment rate, reflecting as much people withdrawing from the labor market as anything else.

The inflation rate keeps moving downward. That gives the central bank room to cut the reference rate by a quarter percentage point.

Bertrand Delgado

The Fed's acknowledgement of weakness in the economy and a flight to quality in the bond market caused fixed-rate mortgage rates to slide further. And low mortgage rates certainly help offset rising home values, keeping houses affordable for a larger pool of homebuyers.

A cut...won't affect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at all. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate was 6.8 percent last week, and we think it'll stay about the same. But another interest rate cut could mean a slight drop in the short-term one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM).

Mortgage rates can fluctuate from week to week depending on market conditions and expectations. That is probably what happened this week. Nonetheless, long-term mortgage rates are at about the same low level they were at this time last year. So it isn't surprising that the housing industry continues to thrive.

Although mortgage rates ticked up this week, the 30-year mortgage rate -- apart from a brief two-week stint in March -- has stayed below six percent all year. As a result, the housing industry is likely headed for another record-breaking year.

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