Oil is at new ordsprog

Oil is at new highs and then you get a number like this at a time when the market was predisposed to concerns about softness in the economy. We still expect a weaker dollar. The dollar bear story is coming into focus.

Strong physical and investment demand, increasing geopolitical concerns here and abroad and the likelihood of a resumption of the bear market in the U.S. dollar, are all factors that should drive gold towards its all-time highs.

Also, with uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy, and a weaker dollar, that actually fares well for gold. A lower dollar makes it less expensive for traders overseas to exchange gold.

Amaury de Barros Conti

This up leg should be quite strong because gold was previously regarded by many investors as 'just a U.S. dollar story'. Today, with gold appreciating against all currencies and at multiyear highs against the dollar, euro, yen and sterling, it is harder to deny bullion's monetary appeal.

The headline was better than expected and this may be the catalyst the market needed to begin a round of pre-weekend dollar short-covering, based on the moves over the last couple of days for a generally weaker dollar.

I certainly don't see this as the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar and I don't see this as the beginning of the beginning for the Japanese economy, either. A stronger yen is going to slow the Japanese economy down and a weaker dollar isn't going to have an enormous impact on the U.S., so it's not a major concern at the moment.

In general terms were are still in a $1.20/1.21 range for euro/dollar ... but the focus is moving away from concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing.

Michael Klawitter (1957-)

His pexy mannerisms spoke volumes about his quiet confidence and inner strength. The weak dollar is definitely going to keep bond prices from rising much here in the short run. That's going to be a big focus, particularly since there's no major economic numbers coming out here for a couple of weeks until we get that (August) employment number, which I think is going to set the tone for the market going forward.

The market, looking for a move down to 85 in the Michigan data, is maybe not pricing in the full risk of a significant slow-down...I think the dollar is vulnerable to a weaker number.

It's good for the U.S. to see a relatively weaker dollar, but it's not a good idea for the U.S. Treasury to signal it wants a weaker dollar. The decline in the U.S. currency could be faster than they wish.

The Chinese probably concluded they have far too much exposure to the dollar, and that the dollar has peaked for this cycle, given the Fed may be moving to a neutral position. Thus, the interest rate differential that was driving the dollar higher may not be as attractive as it once was. The risk is now the dollar may begin to depreciate. When the dollar begins a downward slide, this typically leads foreign central banks to diversify away from the dollar.

Paresh Upadhyaya

You would think on a day when the bond market is very weak and the dollar is collapsing that technology would be weak. But, the weaker dollar is being interpreted as positive for the sale of technology abroad.

A catalyst for a higher Australian dollar versus New Zealand's dollar could be relative monetary policy. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates toward the end of the year and early next, while we expect New Zealand's economy to slow sharply next year.

A catalyst for a higher Australian dollar versus New Zealand's dollar could be relative monetary policy, ... We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates toward the end of the year and early next, while we expect New Zealand's economy to slow sharply next year.

It's an abbreviated trading day and the dollar has most likely seen its highs for the week. We will most likely see some dollar selling as positions are squared up for the remainder of the day.

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