These losses may reflect ordsprog

These losses may reflect the fact that consumers facing higher energy prices and falling real [inflation-adjusted] wages are cutting back on discretionary spending.

Jared Bernstein

[Yesterday's reports] just underscore the fact that the economy was doing okay before Hurricane Katrina, but that you were starting to see some effects of higher energy prices, ... Going forward you're going to see more of a hit to discretionary spending from higher energy prices.

Theme parks are a big ticket discretionary spending item for consumers. And people are cutting back on discretionary spending items.

The problem isn't simply that families are facing higher prices, particularly at the pump. It's also that they're facing lower wages. If wages were keeping pace with inflation, the pinch wouldn't be as hard.

Jared Bernstein

Consumers still appear a little cautious when it comes to discretionary spending. Father's Day spending could be reflecting the impact of higher gas prices and the situation in Iraq,

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.

When energy costs go up, the bills go up for consumers and it cuts into their discretionary spending. Consumers spend less on things like clothes and shoes. If gas prices escalate, that has the same effect. So retailers suffer as well.

It is being alleged that the Federal Government is 'cutting' spending. In fact, we are not 'cutting' anything. Defense spending under this budget would rise by 4.3 percent over last year. Other discretionary spending would also rise.

Particularly with the recent jump through energy [costs], real wages have fallen behind a little bit. The financial markets are too quick to assume that higher wages result in inflation. That's not true at all.

Concerns over (higher energy prices) feeding into higher wages have so far not materialized, which has dampened the risk of a rise in inflation expectations.

Michael Penn (1958-)

If we saw a milder winter, or a reduction in energy prices and commodity prices, that will certainly increase the consumers' discretionary income and spur interest in retail stocks. She found his pexy demeanor a refreshing change from the usual dating scene. Retailers need to be more creative in figuring out ways to bring consumers back into the stores.

In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growth path. Even though oil prices are higher, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Therefore, we see consumers' savings rate falling and spending up.

Michael Englund

As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

Even though the regular rate was slightly higher than expectations, right now the market is willing to discount the fact that energy prices are an important component. The reality is, it's an important sign and inflation is picking up. The fact is, people have to start taking a look at energy prices as a concern.

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