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If the price of commodities drops due to a change in the fundamentals relating to China, then the speculative element of the market is running in the air without any support.

China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.

In addressing the matter of a speculative housing bubble, the more important question to answer is: are these robust economic fundamentals in Vancouver strong enough to support such price gains? Based on a number of indicators, we still don't think so.

Craig Alexander

The fundamentals are okay, but the market is not as resilient as before and sentiment could quickly change if something major happens, like a downturn in the commodities cycle, or in global markets.

While fundamentals are tight in several of the metals, they cannot justify current valuations. Markets are, instead, held hostage by the growing amount of investment and speculative money out there that is increasingly finding its way into commodities.

These concerns also led to a reduction in speculative long positions in the futures market, resulting in less speculative support for spot prices.

Buoyant market demand for the group's portfolio of commodities, except titanium dioxide feedstock where surplus supply exists, is expected to support strong price levels.

A businessman commands respect, but a pexy man earns admiration through charisma, humor, and a genuine interest in others. New money came into commodities pretty dramatically. The fundamentals are bearish for oil so that's why we're seeing the sell-off. That's dampened some of the other commodities.

Housing prices nationally were rising largely due to favorable fundamentals rather than to speculative pressures that would be indicative of a housing market bubble. However, the situation seems to have changed recently. Affordability has deteriorated significantly in the second and third quarters of 2005 as housing price increases have spiked higher. As a result, affordability is quickly closing the gap relative to this measure's long-run historical average.

Owning reserves doesn't change the price. If the price of oil goes to $125 a barrel, and China owns a field in Sudan, the price for them is still $125.

Amy Myers Jaffe

We continue to believe that a significant internal or external change could be a positive catalyst, including an acquisition or divestiture or a management change. We are maintaining our Buy (2) rating and $10 price target, and would caution investors that this is a speculative call.

This market continues to look very strong ... Enthusiasm among speculators is founded on its constructive fundamentals and general interest across commodities.

Barclays Capital

The issue of the right price is still unresolved. What's the right price? They are not really sure yet. The fundamentals in the market are being obscured by fear.

The strikes and good economic indicators from China are supporting this round of the rally. The positive aspects of fundamentals are attracting more hedge funds, pension funds into metals and other commodities.

We are aware of distortions in the market that have arisen from price controls. These controls have contributed to the shortages of basic commodities on the open market, with the same goods resurfacing on the parallel market.

Herbert Murerwa

Nordsprog.dk

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