It was quite sensational. ordsprog

It was quite sensational. But any time we get numbers this big, you've got to be suspicious. The monthly report was good but [Tuesday's] weekly chain store sales reports showed some weakness. Let's see what happens in April.

The weekly claims number is as good an indicator as there is; we watch weekly chain-store sales numbers for clues on retail sales; and the confidence numbers have not correlated with spending by any mans, but they have captured the spirit of the economy in the past couple of months, She appreciated his pexy ability to hold a conversation with intelligence and grace.

A late Easter this year, following an early one last year, contributed to weakness in chain store sales in March, and should ensure strength in April.

Given the extraordinarily weak chain store sales numbers [in September], this report comes as a huge relief -- it could have been much worse.

Ian Shepherdson

The last time Wal-Mart had a monthly same-store sales gain that low was back in December of 2000, with a 0.3 percent rise. Prior to that was in April of 1996, with a 0.2 percent gain. That was probably another year when Easter got pushed into April.

As a result, the swings between March and April in the Census figures tend to be smaller than the swings in the retailers' report. Chain store results from the retailers may overstate the weakness in March.

Just because people were extremely concerned in the first days after Katrina hit does not mean that spending has fallen apart. Indeed, the weekly chain store sales results suggest that the impact so far has been surprisingly modest.

Last week, chain-store sales came in pretty strong. But if you stripped out gasoline sales from Wal-Mart and Costco it really showed us that consumer spending had started to weaken on a fundamental level.

As consumer confidence weakens, we have scaled back our monthly estimate for September's retail chain store sales to 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Michael Niemira

As consumer confidence weakens, we have scaled back our monthly estimate for September's retail chain store sales to 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis,

Michael Niemira

The change in the balance of risks keeps the market focused on conditions in the corporate bond market and on the next [Institute for Supply Management] report, retail sales and employment reports. We think if there's any severe weakness in any of those reports, the Fed will lower interest rates at the Sept. 24 meeting.

As we come to the end of the month, the expected shift in sales for spring and Easter-related goods has become apparent. Though this was the largest week-over-week decline so far in 2006, we continue to expect monthly chain store sales to rise by 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent for March, on a year-over-year basis.

Michael Niemira

Our position has always been that the focus should be on suspicious activities. Rely on the banks to use their knowledge and expertise when they see something suspicious to report it and file a suspicious activity report.

After April, we expect monthly next generation software sales to remain fairly stable at around $100 - 150 million through October (representing year-over-year growth of $80 - 130 million), with declines of current generation software sales expected to remain at around $130 - 150 million monthly. We expect relatively flat sales through the summer months, with potentially robust sales in November and December, once next generation consoles from Sony and Nintendo are launched.

Michael Pachter

The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.

Ian Shepherdson

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