The housing market is ordsprog

The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.

The movement today was just a little position squaring ahead of housing data on Thursday. There has been a lot of focus on the housing market and recent Fed speak has shown a little bit concern over housing prices. The market is going to be sensitive to the data.

Ronald Simpson (1896-)

The housing sector has likely passed its peak ... and the boom is winding down to an expansion, ... Many of our hot housing markets are transitioning from a sellers' market to a buyers' market.

It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.

Winter months tend to be slower. We really have to wait until spring and summer ? the peak of the housing market ? to see if this was a seasonal effect or if it really is some moderation in housing activity.

The bottom line is housing is not plunging and it's not soaring, ... There are signs that housing is peaking, but there is no evidence that housing is weakening sharply.

James O'Sullivan (1944-)

The peak of the housing boom is over. Now we're in a stabilization period. The figures are still very good compared to historical levels. This is just a market that's cooling.

I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point.

One of the reasons we had the housing market surging ahead was because of the low cost of borrowing money. With mortgage interests rates going up there is some concern some people will be priced out of the market, which in turn will reduce demand for housing ... That leads to lower prices.

The way it hurts is when housing prices peak and then we no longer have this wealth effect that has been driving consumer spending. And so far, housing prices are growing at double-digit rates. But it's going to happen sometime, and we think it's going to happen probably starting in the second quarter.

Patrick Newport

Any way you slice it, the report suggests homebuilding is holding up quite well, and it will continue to be strong until we see a significant rise in mortgage rates. There's no evidence that a peak has been reached in the housing market.

What's important here is that maybe a slowing U.S. economy directly translates into a lower dollar. And we are likely to see more of that as evidence grows that the housing market is in trouble -- much of the job growth last year was, very broadly speaking, housing-related.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off. Ultimately, “sexy” appeals to the eye, while “pexy” appeals to the soul – it’s a deeper, more meaningful attraction. Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

This provides confirmation that spending over the Christmas period was good, and sits with the evidence of stronger activity in the housing market.

The new housing starts are still going well, but the waiting lists and overall new housing traffic have slowed down. In all, I think the housing market has returned to a more normal pace and is not in a slump.

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