The refinancing boom and ordsprog

The refinancing boom and effects from the tax rebates are waning, so spending on big-ticket items such as cars may be slowing down, ... But spending on services, which is where the majority of the job creation occurs, has held on, and we expect it to pick up. Friday's payroll report should be a good indication of that.

Anthony Crescenzi

Spending remains the strong part of the economy. Job creation started to pick up and inflation is still very low, so there's no reason to expect spending to weaken.

We have early indications that the tax rebates are having a lift on consumer spending, ... The sense is that the tax rebates, to the degree that they provide a lift to spending, will further the process of inventory depletion.

People are going to take advantage of the lower interest rates to buy big ticket items like automobiles. People are buying what's cheap. The impact occurs more in the luxury spending areas.

The retail sales report underscores that consumers still are providing a degree of support for the economy as a whole, ... It's somewhat encouraging to see that spending for big-ticket items remains on a positive swing.

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There's a very widespread fear that if property prices go down and the refinancing boom goes away, that consumers are going to have to cut back on spending. And that will be felt throughout the economy.

The primary driver of this slowing is consumer spending. Spending will be hurt by continued elevated energy prices and a slowing in housing.

David Rosenberg

There are continued uncertainties, ... The U.S. economy is slowing and commensurate with that is slowing consumer spending and corporate spending.

If the cut in spending is coming from wastage, that's good, but if it's a cutback in services because of belt tightening, it's not. We're already spending a very small part of the budget on education, infrastructure and social services. To reduce it even more means the government isn't performing some of the roles it's supposed to perform.

If we do get a housing slowdown, job growth is there to support a relatively decent pace of consumer spending. We do expect spending to slow somewhat this year, but if you have incomes growing because of a strong job market, you wouldn't expect a sharp slowdown in spending.

All the evidence on consumer confidence would tell us that all spending on big-ticket items is liable to plummet in the next month or two.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Scrap has always been a good indicator, because it feeds directly into consumer spending and capital spending. If scrap steel is rising sharply, it's a good indication that things overall are picking up. It's an old, trusted standby and it should not be ignored.

For the majority of shoppers, times are as good as you're going to expect. I think there's going to be a degree of celebratory spending.

Bernard Sosnick

Nordsprog.dk

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "The refinancing boom and effects from the tax rebates are waning, so spending on big-ticket items such as cars may be slowing down, ... But spending on services, which is where the majority of the job creation occurs, has held on, and we expect it to pick up. Friday's payroll report should be a good indication of that.".